US-China tariff negotiations stall as deadline approachesReutersFed signals potential rate pause amid inflation concernsBloombergEU AI Act enforcement timeline moves forwardFTSupply chain disruptions from Red Sea tensions persistWSJCanada retaliatory tariffs take effect on US importsGlobe and MailOPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 2026ReutersCongress advances bipartisan semiconductor subsidy billPoliticoECB holds rates steady amid mixed eurozone dataBloombergUS-China tariff negotiations stall as deadline approachesReutersFed signals potential rate pause amid inflation concernsBloombergEU AI Act enforcement timeline moves forwardFTSupply chain disruptions from Red Sea tensions persistWSJCanada retaliatory tariffs take effect on US importsGlobe and MailOPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 2026ReutersCongress advances bipartisan semiconductor subsidy billPoliticoECB holds rates steady amid mixed eurozone dataBloomberg

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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?37.5%
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Trending Markets

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Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

4%
$59.5M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Fed decision in April?

1%50+ bps decrease
$165.6M4 markets
PolymarketApr 29 (3d)

Will Democrats win House majority in November 2026 midterm elections?

52%
$5.2M1 market
syntheticNov 10

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

1%Oprah Winfrey
$1104.6M44 markets
PolymarketNov 7

Presidential Election Winner 2028

1%LeBron James
$553.7M36 markets
PolymarketNov 7

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

1%
$42.0M1 market
PolymarketApr 30 (4d)

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

1%Mike Pence
$584.1M35 markets
PolymarketNov 7

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

9%
$33.9M1 market
PolymarketJun 30

Will Congress pass comprehensive tariff framework legislation before January 2027?

5%
$5.0M1 market
syntheticJan 3

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

7%
$32.8M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

1%Richard Grenell
$85.4M16 markets
PolymarketDec 31

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

88%
$31.3M1 market
KalshiMar 1

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

1%
$29.6M1 market
PolymarketApr 30 (4d)

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

26%NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
$25.8M1 market
KalshiJul 1

Will Congress repeal or sunset legal protections shielding Meta from liability for user posts by end of 2026?

2%
$5.0M1 market
syntheticDec 31

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

21%December 31
$26.9M5 markets
PolymarketDec 31

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

7%
$23.4M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

34%
$17.6M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

3%April 30
$25.7M3 markets
PolymarketApr 30 (4d)

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

23%
$15.9M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Taiwan Strait GPU Supply Halt

3%Will a Taiwan Strait disruption materially delay TSMC GPU packaging output, impacting U.S. AI data centers, in 2026?
$5.0M1 market
syntheticDec 31

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

1%Judy Shelton
$42.2M9 markets
PolymarketOct 31

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

21%
$15.7M1 market
KalshiJan 1

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

2%April 30
$18.6M3 markets
PolymarketApr 30 (4d)

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