US-China tariff negotiations stall as deadline approachesReutersFed signals potential rate pause amid inflation concernsBloombergEU AI Act enforcement timeline moves forwardFTSupply chain disruptions from Red Sea tensions persistWSJCanada retaliatory tariffs take effect on US importsGlobe and MailOPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 2026ReutersCongress advances bipartisan semiconductor subsidy billPoliticoECB holds rates steady amid mixed eurozone dataBloombergUS-China tariff negotiations stall as deadline approachesReutersFed signals potential rate pause amid inflation concernsBloombergEU AI Act enforcement timeline moves forwardFTSupply chain disruptions from Red Sea tensions persistWSJCanada retaliatory tariffs take effect on US importsGlobe and MailOPEC+ production cuts extended through Q3 2026ReutersCongress advances bipartisan semiconductor subsidy billPoliticoECB holds rates steady amid mixed eurozone dataBloomberg

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Top events across all risk situations

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Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party78.5%Republican Party21.5%
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Trending Markets

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Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

2%
$65.1M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%
$59.3M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Will Congress pass comprehensive tariff framework legislation before January 2027?

5%
$5.0M1 market
syntheticJan 3

Presidential Election Winner 2028

1%LeBron James
$690.9M52 markets
PolymarketNov 7

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

1%Oprah Winfrey
$1264.4M51 markets
PolymarketNov 7

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

1%Byron Donalds
$689.8M42 markets
PolymarketNov 7

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%
$39.9M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

4%December 31
$41.4M2 markets
PolymarketJan 1

Will Congress repeal or sunset legal protections shielding Meta from liability for user posts by end of 2026?

2%
$5.0M1 market
syntheticDec 31

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

3%
$35.3M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

1%Richard Grenell
$95.8M16 markets
PolymarketDec 31

Florida Republican Governor nominee?

1%James Fishback
$51.3M9 markets
KalshiNov 3

More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?

92%
$31.5M1 market
KalshiMar 1

Iran ceasefire continues through...?

99%May 24
$30.2M1 market
Polymarket

Taiwan Strait GPU Supply Halt

3%Will a Taiwan Strait disruption materially delay TSMC GPU packaging output, impacting U.S. AI data centers, in 2026?
$5.0M1 market
syntheticDec 31

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

6%
$31.5M7 markets
KalshiJan 1

Will the Citrini scenario happen?

20%NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
$25.9M1 market
KalshiJul 1

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

7%
$24.8M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

1%Judy Shelton
$60.7M9 markets
PolymarketOct 31

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

1%Haley Stevens
$30.8M9 markets
KalshiNov 3

Will Democrats maintain Senate majority after November 2026 midterm elections?

46%
$4.8M1 market
syntheticNov 10

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

8%December 31, 2026
$21.1M4 markets
PolymarketJan 1

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

4%
$17.9M1 market
PolymarketDec 31

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

1%August 31
$15.7M1 market
PolymarketSep 1 (10d)

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