If a risk can be defined,
it can be hedged.
We do both.
The Vision
The financial system built hedging infrastructure for standardized risks: currencies, interest rates, commodities.
But many of the risks that actually destroy businesses sit outside that system entirely. Tariff shocks reprice supply chains overnight. Political transitions freeze capital deployment across regions. Regulatory reversals invalidate operating models built over years.
These are not exotic scenarios. They are recurring, measurable and, until now, unhedgeable.
Prediction markets have proven the premise: geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty can be priced. What's missing is the layer that connects those prices to the enterprises exposed to the outcomes.
Castle is that layer.
The Product
We can map any discrete, macro-level risk to an event contract, producing a precise numerical probability of that event occurring. Where no liquid contract exists, we create one, allowing prediction markets to price political, regulatory, and macro uncertainty directly.
Those market prices provide a more accurate, continuously updating forecast of the events that matter to your business. Once those risks are priced, companies can not only quantify them, but also hedge against them through fairly priced protection that we broker with institutional market makers, with proper collateral management and settlement infrastructure.
The Team
Castle was founded by four Stanford mathematicians and computer scientists. We have experience at the top quantitative trading desks and production engineering teams.
We have priced risk, traded it, and engineered systems around it.
We raised a $7.5M seed round led by Ribbit Capital, with participation from Jump Crypto and SV Angel. Our investors also include founders at Coinbase, Ramp, Mercury, Parafin, and Index Ventures, alongside builders from OpenAI, Cognition, and Mercor.
Contact
Talk to us directly.
If you want to discuss a specific exposure, send a note and we will follow up directly.